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环球焦点透视
政策谨慎主动,稳定全年增长 --全球市场策略与展望2013年1月

策略总结
 
资产分布

悲观
中性
乐观
资产类别
现金 债券 股票
债券*
国债

投资级企业债
高收益债

股票
  美国、欧洲、日本

亚洲
新兴市场
中国

*指久期加权债券

Going into 2013 there are a number of investment themes to consider. Long term forecasts suggest that equities will produce the best total return over the coming years, while cash and government bonds will produce returns that will struggle even to match inflation. The market moves seen in late 2012, however, make us less confident to back the positions suggested by these long term returns.
进入2013年,将有不少投资主题值得考虑。长期预测,股市将在未来几年内产生最佳总体回报,而货币及国债的回报将勉强与通胀持平。然而,2012年末的市场走势却让我们对这一针对长期回报的暗示信心不足。

Looking at cash first it seems clear that interest rates in most currencies will remain close to zero this year. Even if economies were to continue recent improvements policy makers will use such improvements to tighten fiscal, rather than monetary, policy. So while cash is the asset that will not actually go down in value, the likely return on it will remain extremely low.

首先来看货币,似乎很明显,大多数货币的利率今年将维持接近于零。即使经济体依如近期持续改善。决策者也将利用此来收紧财政,而非货币政策。因此,尽管货币资产实际不会贬值,但可能的收益也将维持极低。

? Next on the risk spectrum is government bonds. Here yields are at extremely low levels from which it will not take much in the way of yield increases to produce a negative total return. Any sustained improvement in the global economy, abandonment of bond buying by central banks, or suggestion that interest could rise in the future are likely to see bond yields rise. Core government bonds are thus our least favoured asset class. Corporate bonds still offer a yield pick-up over government bonds that will more than compensate for any losses from companies defaulting. Company finances remain in good shape.

风险排列中处于下一位的国债,其收益率也已非常之低,离收益率上升从而产生负收益也为之不远。全球经济的持续改善,央行弃买债券,或是对未来利率走高的暗示都将可能使债券收益率上升。主要国债将是最不受青睐的资产类别。而企业债券收益率仍然高于国债,超过了违约损失。公司财务状况维持良好。

However the yield pick up for both investment grade and high yield bonds has fallen significantly in 2012. As a result the capital gains from further spread tightening that drove the strong returns in 2012 are largely behind us, leaving prospective returns more modest.

然而,投资级及高收益债券收益率的升幅在2012年已显著下降。因此,如2012年这般因收益率差价收窄而产生的资本收益已基本不再,这使得未来收益将比较温和。

We remain overweight corporate bonds and can still see yields spreads falling further, but will act to reduce overweights if spreads tighten significantly further.

我们维持对企业债券“偏高比重”的观点,收益率差价仍可能进一步下降,但在其进一步显著收窄时将采取减仓。

Turning finally to equities, they still look set to produce the best returns over the long term, and we may be seeing portfolio rotation by investors out of bonds into equities on a long term basis. However expected returns are modest in comparison with recent market moves, and there seems to be an element of complacency creeping into the market at the moment.

最后来谈股票,从长期看,其将提供最高的回报,我们或将看到投资者在投资组合上的转换,长期从债券转向股票。但与近期市场走势相比,预计收益将比较温和,目前看多市场之势似乎正在蔓延。

We thus maintain only a small overweight in equities and will continue to take profits into any further rallies to keep positions at modest levels. If the news turns worse for any reason and markets suffer significant setbacks, we will be ready to more aggressively increase equity weightings, but feel the time is not right at present.

因此,我们将维持股票稍稍的偏高比重,并在进一步的反弹中获利了结,以保持适中仓位。如果消息面因任何原因而转坏,市场重挫,我们将准备更加积极地增加股票比重,但目前还不是正真的时机。

In some ways the worst case scenario for investors is that corporate bond spreads continue to tighten and equities continue to rally, thus eroding long term value in these asset classes at a time when prospective cash and government bond returns remain low. If this happens the right approach will be to reduce portfolio risk and accept low returns while waiting for value to appear once again.

某种程度上,对投资者而言最糟的情况是,货币及国债的收益维持较低,而企业债券的收益率差价继续收窄,且股市持续反弹,从而侵蚀这些资产类别的长期投资价值。如真发生,正确的方法是降低投资组合风险,获取较低收益,等待投资价值的再次出现。

However there are many factors that could prevent such a scenario from developing. Although much noise has been made about the deal to avert the US fiscal cliff, the fact remains that the cliff was merely a symptom of the underlying disease of excessive debt, which remains. And not just in the US. Europe and Japan also labour under high debt burdens, so that the global economy will continue to struggle for sustainable growth. Asset markets are currently focused on improving growth trends, but this could change at any time. We are therefore cautiously positioned.

然而,有许多因素将会阻止这种情况的发展。尽管避免美国财政悬崖的方案闹得沸沸扬扬,但事实依旧是财政悬崖只是表症,过度负债这一暗疾仍然存在。而且不止美国,欧洲、日本也为债台高筑所累。因此,全球经济将继续为实现可持续增长而努力。资本市场目前所关注的是增长趋势的改善,而此事或随时生变。所以,我们维持谨慎。


 
股票策略

China

The government has maintained its guidance of prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy for 2013. However, based on recent stronger data, the likelihood of further policy easing by government has partially subsided for now. The government is also fast tracking investment projects and has introduced measures to raise consumption and support the corporate sector facing challenging demand conditions. We expect earlier policy easing to continue feeding through to support a modest pickup in growth this year. We expect pro-growth policy to continue feeding through to support stabilization in growth into 2013.


Hongkong

We expect a cyclical recovery in the local economy in 2013. After months of earnings downgrades, we are seeing signs of stabilization in consensus forecasts. This sets the scene for a rebound in corporate profitability in the coming year. This, together with ample liquidity with the continued capital inflow into Hong Kong and attractive valuation, will be the key drivers for the Hong Kong market in the next 12 months. As China becomes more aggressive in its countercyclical policy, sentiment should improve and lift the Hong Kong market up. We also believe that if and when the Chinese economy shows signs of sequential improvement, domestic Hong Kong stocks might significantly underperform their Chinese counterparts.


 
债券,货币和商品

Bond

We expect any rise in bond yields in 2013 to be modest, given ultra-low central bank rates and ongoing risks, such as the US debt ceiling increase, to be resolved in Q1 2013. Casting an overhang on the euro zone debt markets is the possibility that Spain will eventually have to ask for a full bailout, as well as, the February elections in Italy which could produce some uncertainty over its commitment to reduce the deficit. We prefer corporate bonds and emerging market debt from both fundamental and valuation perspectives. Company fundamentals are generally supportive of corporate bond markets as balance sheets are mostly in good shape and many companies are cash rich. This should provide a cushion that will help to shield them from the impact of banks reducing their loan books and slowing global growth. We expect any deterioration in credit quality to be moderate for the majority of companies, even if the global economy slows.


Currency

The British pound’s weakness is set to emerge from the shadows in 2013, with UK’s fiscal credibility is under scrutiny and the threat of a sovereign downgrade looming. The path of Japanese yen will be determined by whether the market remains confident the new government will ultimately implement the radical easing measures proposed in the run-up to the election. We expect moderate RMB gains early this year, supported by favorable cyclical and seasonal factors. Further ahead, one should be prepared for the RMB internationalization to develop at a rapid pace. The outlook for most Asian currencies has turned for the better and we expect this to continue through 2013. There are two factors at play that should see investors pivot towards Asian currencies. First, global tail risks are subsiding, particularly in the Euro zone. Second, growth in Asia is turning stronger, which should benefit the cyclical nature of the region’s currencies.


Commodity

We believe gold could benefit from the debasement of money as central banks engage in more money printing via QE and, more generally, high levels of uncertainty. The lack of visibility with regard to the resolution of the European debt crisis and the looming fiscal tightening in the US in our view provides support for gold. Despite the recent rally on the back of expectations of further monetary loosening by the US Fed, crude oil still offers opportunities in the event of a cyclical recovery in a context of accommodative monetary policies (i.e. record low interest rates and QE). Commodities as an asset class tend to be particularly volatile. That said, Russian equities, which give significant exposure to energy and hard commodities, and Latin American equities, which give exposure to both soft and hard commodities and commodity-related currencies, are indirect ways we invest in the commodity theme.

All returns are in terms of local currencies

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited


新闻来源:汇丰晋信
发布时间:2013-01-24
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