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政府投资启动,重工业有望增长 --全球市场策略与展望2012年12月

策略总结
 
资产分布

悲观
中性
乐观
资产类别
现金 债券 股票
债券*
国债

投资级企业债
高收益债

股票
  美国、欧洲、日本

亚洲
新兴市场
中国

*指久期加权债券

Improved investor sentiment helped global equity markets reverse earlier losses and close the month higher in November. At current price levels valuations still look attractive. Our long term return forecasts continue to suggest equities will provide the highest total return over the long term (i.e. 10+ years). However economic headwinds, like the US ‘fiscal cliff’ and European debt crisis, will continue to cause uncertainty and markets will remain volatile going forward. Against this backdrop, we have a modest overweight in equities. Within equities, we have a preference for emerging markets given the more favourable economic outlook and strong fundamentals. We are neutral among the developed markets.

市场情绪的改善使得恒生指数收复之前的损失并于11月末收高,且目前的股价仍有吸引力。我们的长期策略继续认为股票市场提供的长期(十年以上)回报最高。然而,经济负面因素,如美国的“财政悬崖”和欧洲的债务危机前景不明,市场也因此有所震荡。尽管如此,我们还是超配权益类资产。同样我们更青睐发展中国家的股市,因其经济基本面良好。对发达国家的股市我们持中性态度。

On fixed income, we continue to favour corporate bonds over cash or government bonds. In a low growth and low inflation environment central banks are expected to retain a bias towards a loose monetary policy for many years to come. Interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period, which means that returns in most currencies will be low, or even negative, in real terms (i.e. after inflation).

关于债券市场,我们继续推荐公司债而非货币产品或国债。在目前的低增长,低通胀环境下,央行偏向于宽松货币政策的状况会持续数年。利率会保持低位,这意味着大部分货币的回报都很低,扣除通胀回报甚至为负。

Meanwhile, corporate bonds continue to show an attractive risk premium. With strong balance sheets and an attractive yield corporate bonds offer a good pick up in yield over government bonds. Corporate bonds remain overweight in our fixed income portfolio.

同时,公司债继续提供客观的风险溢价。强劲的资产负债表和回报率使得公司债比国债更值得投资。我们的固定收益类组合中,公司债占的比重更高。


 
股票策略

China

The 18th Chinese Communist Party Congress successfully completed in Beijing in November with the introduction of the 7 new standing committee members announced. It helps remove the market uncertainty regarding the political change within the Party and as a result the overhang was partially removed. Recent estimates from different sources put China's potential growth rate at 5-8% range in the course of the next decade if no major reform is carried out. It suggests sustaining 7% growth in the next eight years would require substantial reforms. We expect infrastructure investment to be the pillar of near-term growth and some upswing of local-government driven investment in the second half of 2013 and 2014, based on the historical experience that infra spending often surges following the appointment of new local officials, and possible overheating pressures.

 

Hongkong

We expect a cyclical recovery in the local economy in 2013. After months of earnings downgrades, we are seeing signs of stabilization in consensus forecasts. This sets the scene for a rebound in corporate profitability in the coming year. This, together with ample liquidity with the continued capital inflow into Hong Kong and attractive valuation, will be the key drivers for the Hong Kong market in the next 12 months. Meanwhile, we continue to believe valuation and better risk appetite, as a result of QE3 and the removal of tail risk in Europe, to support the Hong Kong market. The major risk near term is an inconclusive solution to the fiscal cliff in the US, which may hurt near term sentiment.We also believe that if and when the Chinese economy shows signs of sequential improvement, domestic Hong Kong stocks might significantly underperform their Chinese counterparts.


 
债券,货币和商品

Bond

We think the safe haven premium in yields will eventually be priced out, especially once policy action in Europe and the US improve, forcing yields to rise. However, in the short term, perceived ‘safe haven’ assets could remain well-supported until the US‘fiscal cliff’ uncertainty is resolved. Volatility in eurozone bond markets could return in the next few months, as progress towards an eventual resolution of the crisis ebbs and flows. We prefer corporate bonds and emerging market debt from both fundamental and valuation perspectives. Over time, we expect corporate bonds to outperform government bonds as investors search for higher yielding assets, given the low global interest rate environment. We also expect emerging markets sovereign debt to outperform core developed bond markets in the medium to long term.


Currency

Recent progress made within the eurozone resulted in widespread enthusiasm for the EUR, but might lack sustainability. The outlook of USD is now depending on the talks on solutions for the US ‘fiscal cliff’. A bottoming out of domestic demand, combined with favourable seasonality factors is likely to see the RMB appreciation trendmaintained for now as well as into Q1 next year. On the other hand, the commodity currencies should remain volatile as the risk on risk off sentiment that we have witnessed in markets this year will continue, especially driven by the looming ‘fiscal cliff’. Overall, short term movements may be dictated by inflationary expectations and central bank actions, and thus policy remains a risk.


Commodity

The recent decline in industrial metal prices offers some opportunity in the medium term. Meanwhile, crude oil still offers opportunities in the event of a cyclical recovery in a context of accommodative monetary policies (i.e. record low interest rates and QE). We believe gold could benefit from the debasement of money as central banks engage in more money printing via QE and, more generally, high levels of uncertainty. At the same time, gold remains a potential hedge against the risk of depreciation of the US dollar going forward. Russian equities which give significant exposure to energy and hard commodities and Latin American equities which give exposure to both soft and hard commodities and commodity-related currencies are ways to invest in the commodity theme.


All returns are in terms of local currencies

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited


新闻来源:汇丰晋信
发布时间:2012-12-25
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